Incident Radiographic Osteoarthritis Research Articles

Essential Fatty Acids and Osteoarthritis.

Inflammation worsens joint destruction in osteoarthritis (OA) and aggravates pain. Although n-3 fatty acids reduce inflammation, different n-3 fatty acids have different effects on inflammation and clinical outcomes, with eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) having the strongest effect. We examined whether specific essential fatty acid levels affected the development of OA. We studied participants from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) at risk of developing knee OA. As part of MOST, participants were asked repeatedly about knee pain, and knee radiographs and magnetic resonance images (MRIs) were obtained. Using baseline fasting samples, we analyzed serum fatty acids with standard assays. After excluding participants with baseline OA, we defined two sets of cases based on their status through 60 months' follow-up: those developing incident radiographic OA and those developing incident symptomatic OA (knee pain and radiographic OA). Controls did not develop these outcomes. Additionally, we examined worsening of MRI cartilage damage and synovitis and worsening knee pain and evaluated the number of hand joints affected by nodules. In regression models, we tested the association of each OA outcome with levels of specific n-3 and n-6 fatty acids, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, education, physical activity, race, baseline pain, smoking, statin use, and depressive symptoms. We studied 363 cases with incident symptomatic knee OA and 295 with incident radiographic knee OA. The mean age was 62 years (59% women). We found no associations of specific n-3 fatty acid levels, including EPA, or of n-6 fatty acid levels with incident OA (eg, for incident symptomatic knee OA, the odds ratio per SD increase in EPA was 1.0 [95% confidence interval 0.87-1.17]). Results for other OA outcomes also failed to suggest a protective effect of specific n-3 fatty acids with OA outcomes. We found no association of serum levels of EPA or of other specific n-3 fatty acids or n-6 fatty acids with risk of incident knee OA or other OA outcomes.

Qualitative and Quantitative Measures in the Infrapatellar Fat Pad in Older Adults: Associations with Knee Pain, Radiographic Osteoarthritis, Kinematics, and Kinetics of the Knee

ObjectiveThe purpose of this study is to delineate cross-sectional associations between qualitative and quantitative measures of the infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) and knee symptoms, structure, kinematics, and kinetics in older adults. MethodsNinety eligible subjects (90 knees, mean age 54.0 years, 68.9% female) were examined at our centre. We used T2-weighted fat-suppressed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to evaluate signal intensity alteration, maximum sagittal area, and depth of the IPFP. Symptomatic osteoarthritis (SOA) was a pain subscale score greater than 0 on the Western Ontario McMaster Osteoarthritis Index. A Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2 identified incident radiographic osteoarthritis (iROA). Three-dimensional gait data were employed to analyze knee joint kinematics and kinetics. Correlation and regression analyses assessed associations between IPFP measurements and SOA, iROA, kinematics, and kinetics. ResultsThere were strong and positive associations between IPFP signal intensity alteration and both SOA and iROA in multivariable regression analyses [OR (95% CI): 2.849 (1.440 to 5.636), 2.356 (1.236 to 4.492), respectively]. Conversely, a significant negative correlation was observed between IPFP maximum area and flexion angle [B (95%CI): -1.557 (-2.549 to -0.564)]. Moreover, adjusting for covariates did not reveal any significant correlation between IPFP parameters and other indicators (P > 0.05, respectively). ConclusionIPFP signal intensity alteration and area were associated with knee clinical symptoms, structural abnormalities, and flexion angle in adults over 40, respectively. These findings suggest that IPFP may be a crucial imaging biomarker in early and middle knee osteoarthritis.

Hip dysplasia as risk factor for clinically relevant and radiographic hip osteoarthritis: 10-year results from the CHECK cohort.

To investigate hip dysplasia as a risk factor for clinically relevant and incident radiographic hip osteoarthritis. From a prospective cohort (CHECK) of 1002 middle-aged, new consulters for hip and/or knee pain, 468 hips (251 individuals) were selected based on hip pain, available lateral center edge angle (LCEA) and absence of definite radiographic hip OA (Kellgren and Lawrence grade (KL) <2) at baseline, as well as available follow-up measures. Clinically relevant hip OA was defined by an expert diagnosis based on clinical and radiographic data obtained between year 5-10 from baseline. Incident radiographic hip OA was defined by KL grade ≥2 or a total hip replacement at the 10-year follow-up. Associations between hip dysplasia (LCEA ≤20°) and outcomes were expressed in odds ratios (OR) adjusted for age, sex and BMI. At baseline, participants had a mean age of 55.5 years (SD 5.4), 88% were female and, on hip level, the prevalence of hip dysplasia was 3.6% (n = 17). After 10 years, hip dysplasia was associated with an increased risk for clinically relevant hip OA (OR 2.80 (95% CI 1.15, 6.79), but not for incident radiographic hip OA (OR 0.78 (95% CI 0.26, 2.30)). In the long term, baseline hip dysplasia was associated with an increased risk for clinically relevant hip OA, but not for incident radiographic hip OA. With this in mind, we suggest that future research investigating the link between hip dysplasia and OA strive to include a definition for OA that is clinically relevant.

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations of Comorbidities with Knee Symptoms and Radiographic Abnormalities of Osteoarthritis.

This study aimed to investigate the associations of comorbidities with knee symptoms and radiographic abnormalities of osteoarthritis (OA). Participants were from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Comorbidities were identified at baseline using the modified Charlson Comorbidity Index. For both knees, symptoms were assessed annually from baseline to 48 months using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain and function scores (rescaled range 0-100), and radiographic abnormalities using the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL, 0-4) grades. The presence of significant pain and functional disability was defined as a WOMAC score of ≥ 25 and ≥ 22, respectively, and radiographic OA (ROA) as KL ≥ 2. An increase of ≥ 9 in WOMAC scores and ≥ 1 in KL grades were defined as symptomatic and radiographic progression, respectively. Of 3337 participants, 28% and 9% had one and ≥ 2 comorbidities, respectively. The number of comorbidities was associated with the presence of significant functional disability (odds ratios [ORs] 1.15; 1.46) and predicted the progression of both knee pain and functional disability (ORs 1.11; 1.51). For the type of comorbidities, non-OA musculoskeletal diseases were associated with the presence of ROA and significant functional disability (ORs 1.63; 1.82) and showed a trend to predict incident ROA (OR 1.84, 95% confidence interval 1.00-3.38 p = 0.051). Diabetes and kidney diseases were associated with symptomatic progression of OA (ORs 1.38; 2.72). Having more comorbidities, especially diabetes and kidney diseases, is associated with symptomatic progression of knee OA. Moreover, non-OA musculoskeletal diseases may be associated with the presence and onset of ROA.

Risk Factors and Population-Attributable Fractions for Incident Hip Osteoarthritis.

Despite the huge burden of hip osteoarthritis (OA) and the lack of effective treatment, research into the primary prevention of hip OA is in its infancy. We sought to evaluate risk factors for incident clinical and incident radiographic hip OA among middle-aged and older adults, to evaluate the importance of risk factors from a preventive perspective, and to estimate the percentage of new cases attributable to these risk factors. We retrospectively reviewed data from the Rotterdam study, an open-population cohort study of individuals aged 55 years or older. Data including baseline age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, education level, diagnosis of diabetes, C-reactive protein (CRP), cam morphology, acetabular dysplasia, radiographic thumb OA, radiographic hip OA, and hip pain were assessed for their association with incident clinical hip OA and incident radiographic hip OA separately, after 11 years of follow-up. The population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of statistically significant modifiable risk factors were calculated, as well. New onset of clinical hip OA was seen in 19.9% (544 of 2729) and incident radiographic hip OA in 9.9% (329 of 3309). Female sex, education level below average (PAF 21.4%), and radiographic hip OA (PAF 3.4%) were statistically significantly associated with incident clinical hip OA. Female sex, age, overweight (PAF 20.0%), cam morphology (PAF 7.9%), acetabular dysplasia (PAF 3.6%), and radiographic thumb OA (PAF 4.7%) were statistically significantly associated with radiographic hip OA. Our retrospective analysis suggests that, from a primary prevention perspective, the most important modifiable risk factors among middle-aged and older individuals may be low educational level for incident clinical hip OA and overweight for incident radiographic hip OA. Further study is warranted.

Treatment for Acute Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear in Young Active Adults

BackgroundAnterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury of the knee is common in young active adults and often has severe and sometimes lifelong consequences. The clinical management of this injury remains debated. A prior trial of early versus delayed optional ACL repair showed no differences in outcomes at 2 years.MethodsWe present the 11-year follow-up of a randomized clinical trial involving 121 young active adults (mean age 26yo, 74% male) with an acute sports-related ACL tear. We compared patient-reported and radiographic outcomes between those randomized to receive early ACL reconstruction (ACLR) followed by exercise therapy (N=62) and those treated with early exercise therapy plus optional delayed ACLR (N=59). The primary end point at 11 years was change from baseline in the mean of four subscales of the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) — pain, symptoms, function in sports and recreation, and knee-related quality of life (KOOS4; range of scores, 0 [worst] to 100 [best]; minimal important change=9).ResultsIn all, 88% of the cohort followed up at 11 years (53/62 in the early vs. 54/59 in the optional late ACL repair groups), and 52% of those assigned to optional delayed ACLR underwent ACLR. Mean improvement in KOOS4 from baseline to 11 years was 46 points for those assigned to early ACLR plus exercise therapy and 45 points for those assigned to exercise therapy plus optional delayed ACLR (between-group difference, 1.6 points; 95% confidence interval [CI], −8.8 to 5.6; P=0.67 after adjustment for baseline score, full analysis set). About two thirds of the full cohort reported meeting the case definition for a “patient-acceptable symptom state” (KOOS4 patient-acceptable symptom state threshold value=79), whereas 44% had developed radiographic osteoarthritis of their injured knee. Mean summed incident radiographic osteoarthritis feature scores, scores range from 0 to 30 where higher scores indicate more severe joint damage, were 2.4 for the group assigned to early ACLR and 1.0 for the group assigned to exercise therapy plus optional delayed ACLR (mean difference, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.1 to 1.9).ConclusionsAt 11-year follow-up, among young active adults with acute ACL tears assigned to early ACLR plus exercise versus initial exercise therapy with the option of delayed ACLR, there were no differences in patient-reported outcomes. (Funded by the Swedish Research Council; ISRCTN number, ISRCTN84752559.)

MRI-based T1rho and T2 cartilage compositional imaging in osteoarthritis: what have we learned and what is needed to apply it clinically and in a trial setting?

Cartilage MRI-based T1rho and T2 compositional measurements have been developed to characterize cartilage matrix quality and diagnose cartilage damage before irreversible defects are found, allowing intervention at an early, potentially reversible disease stage. Over the last 2 decades, this technology was investigated in numerous studies and was validated using specimen studies and arthroscopy; and longitudinal studies documented its ability to predict progression of degenerative disease and radiographic osteoarthritis (OA). While T1rho and T2 measurements have shown promise in early disease stages, several hurdles have been encountered to apply this technology clinically. These include (i) challenges with cartilage segmentation, (ii) long image acquisition times, (iii) a lack of standardization of imaging, and (iv) an absence of reference databases and definitions of abnormal cut-off values. Progress has been made by developing deep-learning based automatic cartilage segmentation and faster imaging methods, enabling the feasibility of T1rho and T2 imaging for clinical and scientific trial applications. Also, the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA) Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance mechanism was used to establish standardized profiles for compositional T1rho and T2 imaging, and multi-center feasibility testing is work in progress. The last hurdles are the development of reference databases and establishing a definition of normal versus abnormal cartilage T1rho and T2 values. Finally, effective treatments for prevention and slowing progression of OA are required in order to establish T1rho and T2 as imaging biomarkers for initiating and monitoring therapies, analogous to the role of dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) bone mineral density measurements in the management of osteoporosis. KEY POINTS: • T1rho and T2 cartilage measurements have been validated in characterizing cartilage degenerative change using histology and arthroscopy as a reference. • They have also been shown to predict progression of cartilage degeneration and incidence of radiographic OA. • Advances have been made to facilitate clinical and trial application of T1rho and T2 by improved standardization of imaging and by establishing deep learning-based automatic cartilage segmentation. • Effective treatments with disease-modifying OA specific drugs may establish T1rho and T2 cartilage compositional measurements as biomarkers to initiate and monitor treatment.

Acetabular dysplasia and the risk of developing hip osteoarthritis at 2,5,8, and 10 years follow-up in a prospective nationwide cohort study (CHECK).

ObjectiveTo assess the relationship between acetabular dysplasia (AD) and the risk of incident and end-stage radiographic hip osteoarthritis (RHOA) over 2,5,8 and 10 years. DesignIndividuals (n = 1002) aged between 45 and 65 from the prospective Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK) were studied. Anteroposterior pelvic radiographs were obtained at baseline and 2,5,8, and 10-years follow-up. False profile radiographs were obtained at baseline. AD was defined as a lateral center edge angle, an anterior center edge angle, or both <25° at baseline. The risk of developing RHOA was determined at each follow-up moment. Incident RHOA was defined by Kellgren & Lawrence (KL) grade ≥2 or total hip replacement (THR), end-stage RHOA by a KL grade ≥3 or THR. Associations were expressed in odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. ResultsAD was associated with the development of incident RHOA at 2 years follow-up (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.00–6.04), 5 years follow-up (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.20–4.31), and 8 years follow-up (OR 1.86, 95%CI 1.22–2.83). AD was only associated with end-stage RHOA at 5 years follow-up (OR 3.75, 95% CI 1.02–13.77). No statistically significant associations were observed between AD and RHOA at 10-years follow-up. ConclusionBaseline AD in individuals between 45 and 65 years is associated with an increased risk of developing RHOA within 2- and 5 years. However, this association seems to weaken after 8 years and disappears after 10 years.

Personalized Risk Model and Leveraging of Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Based Structural Phenotypes and Clinical Factors to Predict Incidence of Radiographic Osteoarthritis.

Our study aimed to investigate the association between time to incidence of radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based structural phenotypes proposed by the Rapid Osteoarthritis MRI Eligibility Score (ROAMES). A retrospective cohort of 2,328 participants without radiographic OA at baseline were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative study. Utilizing a deep-learning model, we automatically assessed the presence of inflammatory, meniscus/cartilage, subchondral bone, and hypertrophic phenotypes from MRIs acquired at baseline and 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 72-, and 96-month follow-up visits. In addition to 4 structural phenotypes, we examined severe knee injury history and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scores as time dependent. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze the association between 4 structural phenotypes and radiographic OA disease-free survival, both univariate and adjusted for known risk factors including age, sex, race, body mass index, presence of Heberden's nodes, and knee malalignment. Inflammatory (hazard ratio [HR] 3.37 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.45-4.63]), meniscus/cartilage (HR 1.55 [95% CI 1.21-1.98]), and subchondral bone (HR 1.84 [95% CI 1.63-2.09]) phenotypes were associated with time to radiographic OA at P < 0.05 when adjusted for the risk factors. Sex was a modifier of hypertrophic phenotype association with time to radiographic OA. Female participants with the hypertrophic phenotype were associated with 2.8 times higher risk of radiographic OA (95% CI 2.25-7.54) compared to male participants without the hypertrophic phenotype. Four ROAMES phenotypes may contribute to time to radiographic OA incidence and if validated could be used as a promising tool for personalized OA management.

Alkylresorcinol, a biomarker for whole grain intake, and its association with osteoarthritis: the MOST study

Higher intake of fiber has been associated with lower risk of incident symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA). We examined whether levels of alkylresorcinol (AR), a marker of whole grain intake, were associated with OA in subjects in The Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) Study. Knee x-rays and knee pain were assessed at baseline and through 60-months. Stored baseline fasting plasma samples were analyzed for AR homologues (C17:0, C19:0, C21:0, C23:0, C25:0) and total AR levels (AR sum). Two nested case-control studies, one for incident radiographic OA and one for incident symptomatic OA were performed with participants re-assessed at 15, 30 and 60 months. Multivariable conditional logistic regression with baseline covariates including age, sex, BMI, physical activity, quadriceps strength, race, smoking, depressive symptoms, diabetes and knee injury tested the association of log transformed AR levels with OA outcomes. Seven hundred seventy-seven subjects were, on average, in their 60's, and most were women. For 60-month cumulative incidence, there was no significant association between quartiles of AR concentration and incident radiographic (e.g., for incident radiographic OA, highest vs lowest quartile of AR sum showed RR=0.93 (95% CI 0.59, 1.47), and for symptomatic OA RR was 1.22 (95% CI 0.76, 1.94). In secondary analyses examining 30-month incidence, high AR levels were associated with a reduced risk of X-ray OA (RR=0.31 (95% CI 0.15, 0.64). In primary analyses, AR levels were not associated with risk of OA, but secondary analyses left open the possibility that high AR levels may protect against OA.

Increased risk of incident knee osteoarthritis in those with greater work-related physical activity

ObjectiveOccupations involving greater physical activity may increase risk for knee osteoarthritis (OA). Existing studies have not evaluated work-related physical activity before OA onset. Hence, we aimed to evaluate the association...

Presence of Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Defined Inflammation Particularly in Overweight and Obese Women Increases Risk of Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis: The POMA Study.

The present study was undertaken to assess whether the odds for incident radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) differ between men and women in regard to body mass index (BMI) and inflammatory magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers 1 and 2 years prior, and whether the presence of inflammation on MRI differs between normal-weight and overweight/obese individuals who develop radiographic OA up to 4 years prior. We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative study that developed incident radiographic OA and 355 matched controls. MRIs were read for effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis for up to 4 consecutive annual time points. Subjects were classified as normal-weight (BMI <25), overweight (BMI ≥25 and <30), or obese (BMI ≥30). Conditional logistic regression was used to assess odds of incident radiographic OA for effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis at 1 and 2 years prior to radiographic OA incidence (i.e., "P-1" and "P-2") considering BMI category. Bivariate logistic regression was used to assess odds of inflammation for cases only. One hundred seventy-eight (25.1%) participants were normal weight, 283 (39.9%) overweight, and 249 (35.1%) obese. At P-2, being overweight with Hoffa-synovitis, which had an odds ratio [OR] of 3.26 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.39-7.65), or effusion-synovitis (OR 3.56 [95% CI 1.45-8.75]) was associated with greater odds of incident radiographic OA in women. For those with incident radiographic OA, there were no increased odds of synovitis in the overweight/obese subgroup for most time points, but increased odds for effusion-synovitis were observed at P-2 (OR 2.21 [95% CI 1.11-4.43]). Presence of inflammatory markers seems to play a role especially in overweight women, while obese women have increased odds for radiographic OA also in the absence of these markers.

Prevalence, Incidence, and Progression of Radiographic and Symptomatic Hand Osteoarthritis: The Osteoarthritis Initiative.

To describe the prevalence, incidence, and progression of radiographic and symptomatic hand osteoarthritis (OA), and to evaluate differences according to age, sex, race, and other risk factors. Participants were assessed for radiographic and symptomatic hand OA at baseline and year 4 to determine incident disease. A modified Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to account for clustering of joints within fingers within persons to estimate the prevalence ratios and relative risk estimates associated with participant characteristics. Among 3,588 participants, the prevalence of radiographic hand OA was 41.4%, and the prevalence of symptomatic hand OA was 12.4%. The incidence over 48 months was 5.6% for radiographic hand OA and 16.9% for symptomatic hand OA. Over 48 months, 27.3% of the participants exhibited OA progression. We found complex differences by age, sex, and race, with increasing rates of prevalent hand OA with older age in both men and women, but with rates of incident disease peaking at ages 55-64 years in women. Women had higher rates of symptomatic hand OA, but only nonsignificantly higher rates of incident radiographic hand OA, than men. Women more frequently had distal interphalangeal joint disease, while men more frequently had metacarpophalangeal joint OA. Black men and women had lower rates of hand OA than White participants, but Black men had higher rates of prevalent hand OA than Black women at younger ages. Hand OA is a heterogeneous disease with complex differences by age, sex, race, hand symptoms, and patterns of specific joints affected. Further research investigating the mechanisms behind these differences, whether mechanical, metabolic, hormonal, or constitutional, is warranted.

Kellgren/Lawrence Grading in Cohort Studies: Methodological Update and Implications Illustrated Using Data From a Dutch Hip and Knee Cohort.

ObjectiveThe Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK) is a cohort of middle‐aged individuals with hip or knee pain. Radiographs were assigned Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) scores under different conditions at each follow‐up visit for 10 years. We aimed to describe and consolidate each scoring approach, then illustrate implications of their use by comparing baseline K/L scores assigned using 2 of these approaches, and evaluating their respective associations with joint replacement and incident radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA).MethodsWe compared baseline K/L scores assigned to hips and knees using 2 scoring approaches: 1) assigned by senior researchers to baseline images alone and 2) assigned by trained readers, with images read paired and in known sequence with up to 10 years of follow‐up radiographs (Poisson regression). We evaluated the associations of baseline ROA (any: K/L grade ≥1; established: K/L ≥2) with joint replacement, and of K/L 1 joints with incident established ROA (survival analysis).ResultsOf 1,002 participants (79% women, mean ± SD age 55.9 ± 5.2 years, body mass index 26.2 ± 4.0 kg/m2), the second scoring approach had 2.4 times (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.8–3.1 for knees) and 2.9 times (95% CI 2.3–3.7 for hips) higher prevalence of established ROA than the first approach. Established hip ROA had a higher risk of joint replacement using the first approach (hazard ratio [HR] 24.2 [95% CI 15.0–39.8] versus second approach HR 7.7 [95% CI 4.9–12.1]), as did knees (HR 19.3 [95% CI 10.3–36.1] versus second approach HR 4.8 [95% CI 2.4–9.6]). The risk of incident ROA did not differ by approach.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that evaluating ROA prevalence and predicting outcomes depends on the scoring approach.

The prevalence, incidence, and progression of radiographic thumb base osteoarthritis in a population-based cohort: the Rotterdam Study

To describe the prevalence, incidence, and progression of radiographic thumb carpometacarpal (CMC-1) and trapezioscaphoid (TS) radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) in the general Dutch population aged ≥55y. Data were from the first and second cohort of the Rotterdam Study (1990-2005, 4-12 years follow-up, age 55+). Participants underwent bilateral radiographs at baseline (N=7792) and follow-up (N=3804), read for Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) grade. ROA was defined on the joint level as K-L grade ≥2. The prevalence was assessed at baseline, incidence at follow-up in those free of ROA at baseline, and progression in those with ROA. Differences based on sex and age were evaluated using logistic regression models. At baseline, 1977 (25.3%) had CMC-1 ROA and 1133 (14.5%) TS ROA. The prevalence was higher in females for CMC-1 (aOR=1.98 95%CI [1.77-2.21]) and TS ROA (aOR=2.00 [1.74-2.29]) and increased for every year of age (CMC-1 ROA 1.08 [1.07-1.08]) (TS ROA 1.06 [1.05-1.07]). Most (437/512; 85.4%) incident cases of CMC-1 ROA (2994at risk) were mild (K-L=2), whereas most (145/167; 86,8%) incident cases of TS ROA (3311at risk) were moderate to severe (K-L=3/4). CMC-1 ROA progression was mostly (88/100; 88.0%) seen in the K-L 2 group at baseline, whereas that was (4/17; 23.5%) for TS ROA. CMC-1 ROA and TS ROA are prevalent in the general Dutch population. While incident CMC-1 ROA was primarily mild, incident TS ROA was more often moderate to severe. CMC-1 ROA was a strong predictor for incident TS ROA.

Association of Serum Low-Density Lipoprotein, High-Density Lipoprotein, and Total Cholesterol With Development of Knee Osteoarthritis.

Studies suggest an association between elevated total serum cholesterol, particularly low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and osteoarthritis (OA). The present study was undertaken to evaluate the association between total cholesterol, LDL, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and risk of knee OA. We studied participants from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis study (MOST) cohort at risk of developing knee OA. From baseline through 7 years, repeated knee radiographs and magnetic resonance images (MRIs) were obtained, and knee symptoms were queried. From baseline fasting blood samples, lipids and lipoproteins were analyzed using standard assays. After excluding participants with baseline OA, we defined 2 sets of patients: those developing radiographic OA, and those developing symptomatic OA (knee pain and radiographic OA). Controls did not develop these outcomes. Additionally, we examined worsening of cartilage loss and synovitis on MRI and of knee pain using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index scale. We carried out logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, education, baseline pain, and depressive symptoms, testing total cholesterol and lipoproteins as continuous measures, and we performed sensitivity analyses examining whether commonly used thresholds for high cholesterol, LDL, or low HDL increased risk. We studied 337 patients with incident symptomatic OA and 283 patients with incident radiographic OA. The mean age at baseline was 62 years (55% women). Neither total cholesterol, LDL, nor HDL showed a significant association with radiographic or symptomatic OA. Additionally, we found no association of these lipid measures with cartilage loss, worsening synovitis, or worsening knee pain. Our data do not support an association between total cholesterol, LDL, or HDL with OA outcomes.

Machine learning to predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis over 8 Years using combined MR imaging features, demographics, and clinical factors: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

To develop a machine learning-based prediction model for incident radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee over 8 years using MRI-based cartilage biochemical composition and knee joint structure, demographics, and clinical predictors including muscle strength and symptoms. Individuals (n=1,044) with baseline Kellgren Lawrence (KL) grade 0-1 in the right knee from the Osteoarthritis Initiative database were analyzed. 3T MRI at baseline was used to quantify knee cartilage T2, and Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scores (WORMS) were obtained for cartilage, meniscus, and bone marrow. The outcome was set as true if a subject developed KL grade 2-4 OA in the right knee over 8 years (n=183) and false if the subject remained at KL 0-1 over 8 years (n=861). We developed and compared three models: Model 1: 112 predictors based on OA risk factors; Model 2: top ten predictors based on feature importance score from Model 1 and clinical relevance; Model 3: Model 2 without the imaging predictors. We compared the models using the area under the ROC curve derived from hold-out data. The 10-predictor model (Model 2, that includes cartilage and meniscus WORMS scores and cartilage T2) had a slightly lower AUC (0.772) compared to the model with 112 predictors (Model 1: AUC=0.792, p=0.739); and had a significantly higher AUC compared to the model without MR imaging predictors (Model 3, AUC=0.669, p=0.011). A 10-predictor model including MRI parameters coupled with demographics, symptoms, muscle, and physical activity scores provides good prediction of incident radiographic OA over 8 years.

Signal intensity alteration and maximal area of pericruciate fat pad are associated with incident radiographic osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

To determine whether pericruciate fat pad (PCFP) signal intensity alteration and maximal area are associated with incident radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) over 4 years in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study. Participants were from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study. Case knees (n = 355) were defined by incident ROA between 12 and 48 months visits and were matched by sex, age, and radiographic status with control knees (n = 355). Magnetic resonance images (MRIs) were used to assess PCFP signal intensity alteration and PCFP maximal area at P0 (time of onset of ROA), P-1 (1 year prior to P0), and baseline. Conditional logistic regression analyses were applied to assess associations between PCFP measures and the risk of incident ROA. The mean age of participants was 60.1 years and 66.9% were women. In multivariable analyses, PCFP signal intensity alteration measured at three time points (OR [95%CI]: 1.28 [1.10-1.50], 1.52 [1.30-1.78], 1.50 [1.27-1.76], respectively) and PCFP maximal area (OR [95%CI]: 1.21 [1.03-1.42], 1.27 [1.07-1.52], 1.37 [1.15-1.62], respectively) were significantly associated with incident ROA. PCFP signal intensity alteration and maximal area were associated with incident ROA over 4 years, implying that they may have roles to play in ROA. • Pericruciate fat pad signal intensity alteration and maximal area were associated with incident ROA, implying that they may have roles to play in ROA.

Are changes in meniscus volume and extrusion associated to knee osteoarthritis development? A structural equation model

To explore the interplay between (changes in) medial meniscus volume, meniscus extrusion and radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) development over 30 months follow-up (FU). Data from the PRevention of knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females study were used. This cohort included 407 middle-aged women with a body mass index ≥27kg/m2, who were free of knee OA at baseline. Demographics were collected by questionnaires at baseline. All menisci at both baseline and FU were automatically segmented from MRI scans to obtain the meniscus volume and the change over time (delta volume). Baseline and FU meniscus body extrusion was quantitatively measured on mid-coronal proton density MR images. A structural equation model was created to assess the interplay between both medial meniscus volume and central extrusion at baseline, delta volume, delta extrusion, and incident radiographic knee OA at FU. The structural equation modeling yielded a fair to good fit of the data. The direct effects of both medial meniscus volume and extrusion at baseline on incident OA were statistically significant (Estimate=0.124, p=0.029, and Estimate=0.194, p<0.001, respectively). Additional indirect effects on incident radiographic OA through delta meniscus volume or delta meniscus extrusion were not statistically significant. Baseline medial meniscus volume and extrusion were associated to incidence of radiographic knee OA at FU in middle-aged overweight and obese women, while their changes were not involved in these effects. To prevent knee OA, interventions might need to target the onset of meniscal pathologies rather than their progression.

O16 Development of risk calculators for hand osteoarthritis and invasive treatment

Abstract Aim Develop a prediction model for incident radiographic IPJ osteoarthritis when multiple clinical risk factors are present. Methods This study used secondary analysis from the Chingford 1000 Women Study, a prospective cohort of women aged 45 to 64 years. At baseline, anthropometric, clinical, and lifestyle measured had been collected. Hand radiographs had been taken at baseline and 10 years, read using the Kellgren-Lawrence atlas. For the current study, participants with osteoarthritis (Kellgren-Lawrence ≥2) in any IPJ at baseline were excluded. Risk factors were selected from baseline based on biological plausibility, a published systematic review, and a Delphi study of Hand Surgeons. Incident osteoarthritis was diagnosed at 10 years if ≥ 1 IPJ was Kellgren-Lawrence ≥2. The model was built with logistic regression and elastic net penalisation, and performance assessed through discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (c-slope). Complete case analysis was used. Results Of 1,003 participants, 459 participants were included in this study (median age: 51 years, 202 (44%) with IPJ osteoarthritis at follow-up). Manual occupation (P &amp;lt; 0.01), base of thumb osteoarthritis (P &amp;lt; 0.03), and older age (using a 3-knot spline) were the most important risk factors. C-statistic was 0.67 (0.62 to 0.72) and C-slope was 1.00 (0.68 to 1.34). Conclusions Osteoarthritis at the base of thumb and IPJs might be a continuum of the same disease. Knowledge of these modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors can inform prevention strategies.